15th International Probabilistic Workshop
10th Dresden Probabilistic Workshop
Program
September 27 - 29, 2017Workshop Program Overview
Wednesday, September 27, 2017
| Time | Presentation |
|---|---|
| 11:00 - 11:20 | Welcome; D. Proske, R. Mailach, W. Graf |
| 11:20 - 11:40 |
„Velocity Turbulences in Stochastic Road-Vehicle Dynamics“ W. V. Wedig Institut für Technische Mechanik, KIT - Karlsruher Institut für Technologie |
| 11:40 - 12:00 |
„Comparison of Bridge Collapse Frequencies with Failure Probabilities“ D. Proske Axpo Power AG |
| 12:00 - 13:20 | Lunch break |
| 13:20 - 13:40 |
„Novel moment equations and closure approximation technique for dynamic systems under Erlang renewal impulse processes“ R. Iwankiewicz1, A. Jabłonka2 1Hamburg University of Technology, 2West Pomeranian University of Technology, Szczecin, Poland |
| 13:40 - 14:00 |
„On the efficiency of cross entropy-based importance sampling with Gaussian densities“ S. Geyer, I. Papaioannou, D. Straub Engineering Risk Analysis Group, Technische Universität München |
| 14:00 - 14:20 |
„Prestressed concrete girders shear strength: Probabilistic simulation and design“ D. Novák1, L. Novák1, O.Slowik1, A. Strauss2, B. Krug2 1Institute of Structural Mechanics, Brno University of Technology, 2Institute of Structural Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna |
| 14:20 - 14:40 |
„Numerical Stability Analysis with Polymorphic Uncertainty Modelling under Consideration of Spatial Varying Imperfections“ M. Fina, W. Wagner Institute for Structural Analysis, KIT, Karlsruhe |
| 14:40 - 15:00 | Coffee break |
| 15:00 - 15:20 |
„Stochastic Fourier Integral Operators for Damage Detection“ L. Lamplmayr, M. Oberguggenberger, M. Schwarz Unit of Engineering Mathematics, University of Innsbruck |
| 15:20 - 15:40 |
„Improvement of structural design by consideration of time- and spatially varying uncertain results“ M. Götz, W. Graf, M. Kaliske Institute for Structural Analysis, Technische Universität Dresden |
| 15:40 - 16:00 |
„Life cycle costs for maintenance strategies using Monte Carlo Simulation Methods“ F. Binder, A. Strauss Institute of Structural Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Asset Management Department, ASFiNAG Service GmbH, Vienna |
| 16:00 - 16:20 |
„Comparative study to improve model selection based on Cross-Validation“ I. Reuter, A. Beschorner, M. Voigt, R. Mailach Chair of Turbomachinery and Flight Propulsion, Institute of Fluid Mechanics, Faculty of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Technische Universität Dresden |
| 19:00 | Wenzel Prager Bierstuben Dresden |
Thursday, September 28, 2017
| Time | Presentation |
|---|---|
| 09:00 - 09:20 |
„Application of a Forest Fire Simulation Model using Cellular Automata“ D. Proske1, Jiazhi Li2 1Axpo Power AG, 2ETH Zurich |
| 09:2 - 09:40 |
„Global sensitivity analysis of a natural fire according to EN 1991-1-2“ M. Achenbach1, T. Lahmer2, G. Morgenthal2 1Bereich Prüfstatik, LGA KdöR, 2Faculty of Civil Engineering, Bauhaus University Weimar |
| 09:40 - 10:00 |
„Target safety levels for structural fire resistance based on Lifetime Cost Optimization“ R. Van Coile, L. Bisby RE Centre for Fire Safety Engineering, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK |
| 10:00 - 10:20 |
„Structure-related life safety risks associated with accidental explosions in buildings“ R. Hingorani1, P. Tanner1, C. Zanuy2 1Instituto de Ciencias de la Construcción Eduardo Torroja (CSIC), 2Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) |
| 10:20 - 10:40 | Coffee break |
| 10:40 - 11:00 |
„Reliability analysis of a historical bridge against ship impact“ R. Schlegel1, T. Dannenberg1, T. Most1, M. Grosse1, C. Kunz2 1Dynardo GmbH Weimar, 2Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau, Karlsruhe |
| 11:00 - 11:20 |
„Assessment of compressive strength of historic masonry using in-situ measurements“ M. Sykora1, M. Holicky1, J. Markova1, D. Diamantidis2 1Klokner Institute, Czech Technical University in Prague, 2Faculty of Civil Engineering, OTH Regensburg |
| 11:20 - 11:40 |
„Effect of Climate Change on Snow Load on Ground: Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Snow Map Definition“ P. Croce , P. Formichi, F. Landi Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering – Structural Division, University of Pisa |
| 11:40 - 12:00 |
„A procedure for the definition of material strength pdf based on limited NDT“ F. Marsili, P. Croce, F. Klawonn, F. Landi Section of Infrastructure Management and Architecture, Department of Structures, Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute (Karlsruhe, Germany) |
| 12:00 - 13:20 | Lunch break |
| 13:20 - 13:40 |
„Probabilistic Lifetime Assessment in Case of Creep-Fatigue Interaction of High Temperature Materials“ F. Kölzow, S. Linn, C. Kontermann, M. Oechsner Fachgebiet und Institut für Werkstoffkunde, TU Darmstadt |
| 13:40 - 14:00 |
„Adaptive Gaussian process with unsupervised learning for the reliability analysis of multimodal limit state functions“ C. Bogoclu, D. Roos Institute of Modelling and High-Performance Computing Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences |
| 14:00 - 14:20 |
„Quantification of manufacturing uncertainties for an axial compressor blade in CFD“ T. Hildebrandt1, S. Albert1, T. Biebrach2 1NUMECA Ingenieurbüro, 2TU Dresden |
| 14:20 - 14:40 |
„Reliability based robust design optimization of an electromagnetic actuator system“ T. Most1, S. Marth1, M. Thiele2 1Dynardo GmbH, Weimar, 2Institute of Electromechanical and Electronic Design, Technical University Dresden |
| 14:40 - 15:00 | Coffee break |
| 15:00 - 15:20 |
„Determining model uncertainty associated with concrete crack models for members in flexure“ C.H. McLeod1, C. Viljoen2, J.V. Retief2 1University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa, 2University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa |
| 15:20 - 15:40 |
„Determining model uncertainty associated with concrete crack models for members in tension“ C.H. McLeod1, C. Viljoen2, J.V. Retief2 1University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa, 2University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa |
| 15:40 - 16:00 |
„Probabilistic prediction of long-term deformations in concrete structures using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method“ N. Reybrouck, P. Criel, R. Caspeele Magnel Laboratory for Concrete Research, Department of Structural Engineering, Ghent University |
| 16:00 - 16:20 |
„Target Reliability of Concrete Structures Governed by Serviceability Limit State Design“ S. van Nierop, C. Barnardo-Viljoen, R. Lenner Institute of Structural Engineering, Stellenbosch University |
| 17:30 - 18:30 | Guided Tour Frauenkirche Dresden |
| 19:00 | Restaurant CHIAVERI - im Sächsischen Landtag |
Friday, September 29, 2017
| Time | Presentation |
|---|---|
| 09:00 - 09:20 |
„Solving Non-Uniqueness Issues in Parameter Identification problems for Pre-stressed Concrete Poles by Multiple Bayesian updating“ F. Alkam, T. Lahmer Institute of Structural Mechanics, Bauhaus-Universität Weimar |
| 09:20 - 09:40 |
„Application of Polymorphic Cross-Correlated Random Fields to Material Parameters of Heterogeneous Hydro-Mechanical Coupled Systems“ A. Schmidt, L. Nguyen-Tuan, C. Könke, T. Lahmer Institute of Structural Mechanics, Bauhaus-Universität Weimar |
| 09:40 - 10:00 |
„Uncertainty assessment in the results of inverse damage identification methods in multifield applications“ L. Nguyen-Tuan, C. Könke , T. Lahmer Institute of Structural Mechanics, Bauhaus-Universität Weimar |
| 10:00 - 10:20 |
„Global Sensitivity Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbine Substructures“ C. Hübler, F. Müller, C. G. Gebhardt, R. Rolfes Institute of Structural Analysis, Leibniz Universität Hannover |
| 10:20 - 10:40 | Coffee break |
| 10:40 - 11:00 |
„Probabilities in Safety of Machinery: Borel-Cantelli Lemmas lead to a Prevention Dogma based on the Pareto principle“ H. Mödden German Machine Tool Builders´ Association (VDW), Frankfurt am Main |
| 11:00 - 11:20 |
„Probabilities in Safety of Machinery - Hidden Random Effects for the Dimensioning of Fixed and Moveable Guards“ E. Uhlmann1, F. Meister1, H. Mödden2 1Institute of Machine Tools and Factory Management (IWF), Technische Universität Berlin, 2German Machine Tool Builders´ Association (VDW), Frankfurt am Main |
| 11:20 - 11:40 |
„Quantification Effect of Uncertainty Boundary conditions on A Cooled Turbine Vane Conjugate Heat Transfer“ Wei Shi, Weihong Li, Xueying Li, Jing Ren, Hongde Jiang Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China |
| 11:40 - 12:00 |
„Identification of Loss Model Parameters for Highly Loaded Centrifugal Impellers“ M. Geller, C. Schemmann, N. Kluck Research Center ”Computer Simulation in Mechanical Engineering”, Dortmund University of Applied Sciences and Arts |
| 12:00 - 13:20 | Lunch break |