15th International Probabilistic Workshop & 10th Dresdner Probabilistik Workshop (27th-29th September 2017)

 

  Tentative Workshop Program
 
Time Presentation
Wednesday Sep. 27 2017
11:00 - 11:20 Welcome; D. Proske, R. Mailach, W. Graf
11:20 - 11:40 „Velocity Turbulences in Stochastic Road-Vehicle Dynamics“
W. V. Wedig
Institut für Technische Mechanik, KIT - Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
11:40 - 12:00 „Comparison of Bridge Collapse Frequencies with Failure Probabilities“
D. Proske
Axpo Power AG
12:00 - 13:20 Lunch Break
13:20 - 13:40 „Novel moment equations and closure approximation technique for dynamic systems under Erlang renewal impulse processes“
R. Iwankiewicz
Hamburg University of Technology
A. Jabłonka
West Pomeranian University of Technology, Szczecin, Poland
13:40 - 14:00 „On the efficiency of cross entropy-based importance sampling with Gaussian densities“
S. Geyer, I. Papaioannou, D. Straub
Engineering Risk Analysis Group, Technische Universität München
14:00 - 14:20 „Prestressed concrete girders shear strength: Probabilistic simulation and design“
D. Novák, L. Novák, O.Slowik
Institute of Structural Mechanics, Brno University of Technology
A. Strauss, B. Krug
Institute of Structural Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna
14:20 - 14:40 „Numerical Stability Analysis with Polymorphic Uncertainty Modelling under Consideration of Spatial Varying Imperfections“
M. Fina, W. Wagner
Institute for Structural Analysis, KIT, Karlsruhe
14:40 - 15:00 Coffee Break
15:00 - 15:20 „Stochastic Fourier Integral Operators for Damage Detection“
L. Lamplmayr, M. Oberguggenberger, M. Schwarz
Unit of Engineering Mathematics, University of Innsbruck
15:20 - 15:40 „Improvement of structural design by consideration of time- and spatially varying uncertain results“
M. Götz, W. Graf, M. Kaliske
Institute for Structural Analysis, Technische Universität Dresden
15:40 - 16:00 „Life cycle costs for maintenance strategies using Monte Carlo Simulation Methods “
F. Binder, A. Strauss
Institute of Structural Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna
Asset Management Department, ASFiNAG Service GmbH, Vienna
16:00 - 16:20 „Comparative study to improve model selection based on Cross-Validation“
I. Reuter, A. Beschorner, M. Voigt, R. Mailach
Chair of Turbomachinery and Flight Propulsion, Institute of Fluid Mechanics, Faculty of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Technische Universität Dresden
19:00 Wenzel Prager Bierstuben Dresden
Thursday Sept. 28 2017
09:00 - 09:20 „Application of a Forest Fire Simulation Model using Cellular Automata“
D. Proske
Axpo Power AG
Jiazhi Li
ETH Zurich
09:20 - 09:40 „Global sensitivity analysis of a natural fire according to EN 1991-1-2“
M. Achenbach
Bereich Prüfstatik, LGA KdöR
T. Lahmer, G. Morgenthal
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Bauhaus University Weimar
09:40 - 10:00 „Target safety levels for structural fire resistance based on Lifetime Cost Optimization“
R. Van Coile, L. Bisby
RE Centre for Fire Safety Engineering, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
10:00 - 10:20 „Structure-related life safety risks associated with accidental explosions in buildings“
R. Hingorani, P. Tanner
Instituto de Ciencias de la Construcción Eduardo Torroja (CSIC)
C. Zanuy
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM)
10:20 - 10:40 Coffee Break
10:40 - 11:00 „Reliability analysis of a historical bridge against ship impact“
R. Schlegel, T. Dannenberg, T. Most, M. Grosse
Dynardo GmbH Weimar
C. Kunz
Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau, Karlsruhe
11:00 - 11:20 „Assessment of compressive strength of historic masonry using in-situ measurements“
M. Sykora, M. Holicky, J. Markova
Klokner Institute, Czech Technical University in Prague
D. Diamantidis
Faculty of Civil Engineering, OTH Regensburg
11:20 - 11:40 „Effect of Climate Change on Snow Load on Ground: Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Snow Map Definition“
P. Croce , P. Formichi, F. Landi
Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering – Structural Division, University of Pisa
11:40 - 12:00 „A procedure for the definition of material strength pdf based on limited NDT“
F. Marsili, P. Croce, F. Klawonn, F. Landi
Section of Infrastructure Management and Architecture, Department of Structures, Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute (Karlsruhe, Germany)
12:00 - 13:20 Lunch Break
13:20 - 13:40 „Probabilistic Lifetime Assessment in Case of Creep-Fatigue Interaction of High Temperature Materials“
F. Kölzow, S. Linn, C. Kontermann, M. Oechsner
Fachgebiet und Institut für Werkstoffkunde, TU Darmstadt
13:40 - 14:00 „Adaptive Gaussian process with unsupervised learning for the reliability analysis of multimodal limit state functions“
C. Bogoclu, D. Roos
Institute of Modelling and High-Performance Computing Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences
14:00 - 14:20 „Quantification of manufacturing uncertainties for an axial compressor blade in CFD“
T. Hildebrandt, S. Albert
NUMECA Ingenieurbüro
T. Biebrach
TU Dresden
14:20 - 14:40 „Reliability based robust design optimization of an electromagnetic actuator system“
T. Most, S. Marth
Dynardo GmbH, Weimar
M. Thiele
Institute of Electromechanical and Electronic Design, Technical University Dresden
14:40 - 15:00 Coffee Break
15:00 - 15:20 „Determining model uncertainty associated with concrete crack models for members in flexure“
C.H. McLeod
University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
C. Viljoen, J.V. Retief
University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa
15:20 - 15:40 „Determining model uncertainty associated with concrete crack models for members in tension“
C.H. McLeod
University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
C. Viljoen, J.V. Retief
University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa
15:40 - 16:00 „Probabilistic prediction of long-term deformations in concrete structures using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method“
N. Reybrouck, P. Criel, R. Caspeele
Magnel Laboratory for Concrete Research, Department of Structural Engineering, Ghent University
16:00 - 16:20 „Target Reliability of Concrete Structures Governed by Serviceability Limit State Design“
S. van Nierop, C. Barnardo-Viljoen, R. Lenner
Institute of Structural Engineering, Stellenbosch University
17:30 - 18:30 Guided Tour Frauenkirche Dresden
19:00 Restaurant CHIAVERI - im Sächsischen Landtag
Friday Sept. 29 2017
09:00 - 09:20 „Solving Non-Uniqueness Issues in Parameter Identification problems for Pre-stressed Concrete Poles by Multiple Bayesian updating“
F. Alkam, T. Lahmer
Institute of Structural Mechanics, Bauhaus-Universität Weimar
09:20 - 09:40 „Application of Polymorphic Cross-Correlated Random Fields to Material Parameters of Heterogeneous Hydro-Mechanical Coupled Systems“
A. Schmidt, L. Nguyen-Tuan, C. Könke, T. Lahmer
Institute of Structural Mechanics, Bauhaus-Universität Weimar
09:40 - 10:00 „Uncertainty assessment in the results of inverse damage identification methods in multifield applications“
L. Nguyen-Tuan, C. Könke , T. Lahmer
Institute of Structural Mechanics, Bauhaus-Universität Weimar
10:00 - 10:20 „Global Sensitivity Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbine Substructures“
C. Hübler, F. Müller, C. G. Gebhardt, R. Rolfes
Institute of Structural Analysis, Leibniz Universität Hannover
10:20 - 10:40 Coffee Break
10:40 - 11:00 „Probabilities in Safety of Machinery: Borel-Cantelli Lemmas lead to a Prevention Dogma based on the Pareto principle“
H. Mödden
German Machine Tool Builders´ Association (VDW), Frankfurt am Main
11:00 - 11:20 „Probabilities in Safety of Machinery - Hidden Random Effects for the Dimensioning of Fixed and Moveable Guards“
E. Uhlmann, F. Meister
Institute of Machine Tools and Factory Management (IWF), Technische Universität Berlin
H. Mödden
German Machine Tool Builders´ Association (VDW), Frankfurt am Main
11:20 - 11:40 „Quantification Effect of Uncertainty Boundary conditions on A Cooled Turbine Vane Conjugate Heat Transfer“
Wei Shi, Weihong Li, Xueying Li, Jing Ren, Hongde Jiang
Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
11:40 - 12:00 „Identification of Loss Model Parameters for Highly Loaded Centrifugal Impellers“
M. Geller, C. Schemmann, N. Kluck
Research Center ”Computer Simulation in Mechanical Engineering”, Dortmund University of Applied Sciences and Arts
12:00 - 13:20 Lunch Break
 

 
Organization Team
Dr.-Ing. Matthias Voigt
TU Dresden, Institute of Fluid Mechanics
George-Bähr-Strasse 3c
01062 Dresden, Germany
matthias [dot] voigt [at] tu-dresden [dot] de
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Michael Beer
Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK International Joint Research Center for Engineering Reliability and Stochastic Mechanics (ERSM), Tongji University, Shanghai, China
Callinstr. 34
30167 Hannover, Germany
beer [at] irz.uni-hannover [dot] de
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Wolfgang Graf
TU Dresden, Institute for Structural
Analysis
Georg-Schumann-Str. 7
01187 Dresden, Germany
wolfgang [dot] graf [at] tu-dresden [dot] de
Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Ulrich Häußler-Combe
TU Dresden, Institute of Concrete
Structures
August-Bebel-Straße 30
01219 Dresden, Germany
ulrich [dot] haeussler-combe [at] tu-dresden [dot] de
PD Dr.-Ing. D. Proske
University of Natural Resources and
Applied Life Sciences, Vienna
Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering
Peter Jordan-Strasse 82
1190 Wien, Austria
dirk [dot] proske [at] boku [dot] ac [dot] at